You might have been forgiven for believing that pantomime season had come early to Belém in Brazil, when it hosted the COP30 2025 UN Climate Change Conference.
There were plot twists galore, theatrical special effects from storm flooding and a fire at the venue, 1,600 pantomime villains in the shape of fossil fuel lobbyists, and the accommodation for some of the delegates left early in a Cinderella-like climax. All that was missing was the pantomime dame – let’s call him Widow Yankee.
Brazil’s president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, had wanted to host COP30 in Belém so that delegates could see for themselves a city already affected by climate change and deforestation. And Belém, situated at the entrance of the Amazon rainforest, didn’t disappoint – tropical storms flooded the walkways and the press centre, disrupting media operations.
Because of the insufficient hotel accommodation in Belém for the 56,118 delegates, two cruise ships were moored off the coast. They sailed away as proceedings overran on the final Saturday, prompting a scramble to complete the business of the conference.
As André Aranha Corrêa do Lago, the COP30 chair, read out the final declaration, there were strong objections to the wording, which does not explicitly mention fossil fuels (the main contributor to climate change) or deforestation. Running out of time, the conference committed to establishing voluntary roadmaps for phasing out fossil fuels and halting deforestation.
So, was the conference a success? No, it’s clear that COP’s consensus-based approach cannot “keep 1.5 alive”. There were too many vested interests from the oil-producing nations and lobbyists, and it now seems we are heading at best towards a 2.5 degree rise above pre-industrial global temperatures, rather than the Paris agreement’s 1.5-degree goal. The fact that the conference focussed on adaptation finance for the most-affected countries, rather than phasing out fossil fuel production, suggests that the UN has tacitly abandoned its original target.
The conference’s muddied decision-making is exemplified by the decision to hold the next COP in Turkey, with Australia chairing. Australia’s bid to host was widely supported but Turkey raised an objection and a compromise was reached. As many observers now believe, the format of COP conferences is no longer fit for purpose.
With the United States absent from COP30 and having pulled out of the Paris Agreement, it’s natural to be pessimistic about the health of our planet. A strong, committed US delegation could have influenced decision-making and curtailed some of the rogue behaviour. On the other hand, despite the COP process, investment in green technology is increasing – 2025 was the first year in which energy generation from renewables has exceeded that from coal.
But I can’t help feeling that world leaders should offer greater incentives to help accelerate the transition. Perhaps the answer lies in Widow Yankee’s favourite economic weapon – tariffs. I’m probably being incredibly naive – but rather than randomly slapping on tariffs – if we introduced tariffs on fossil fuels and other products that harm the environment, could that not speed the transition to green technology and keep 1.5 alive?